A Theory about the Boeing 787
Lithium-Ion Battery Problem

Gary Hawkins
March 26, 2014


It remains a mystery

I want travelers to feel safe, want to see Boeing do well, planes made/sold, stock increase,
have the mystery cleared up and right here at the moment describe a possible cause and
give other people a chance to chime in about this theory.
Background
There is enough evidence that radiation (gamma, neutrons, neutrinos) alters Lithium-Ion battery chemistry that manufacturers should be testing it. Many Samsung Note 7 phone batteries in 2016 combusted and this might also be the cause of that. Consider that those phones may have been shipped from Korea over the pole, and the phones that were affected might have happened to have been the ones flown during Aurora Borealis when incoming charged particle activity (having originated from the Sun several days prior) was strong.

Some types of Lithium batteries are so sensitive to radiation at least one company made an effort to use the batteries as both power source **and sensor** in radiation meters.
The voltage on some types of Lithium batteries will increase in the presence of certain types of radiation, however, there also appears to be a delayed reaction that implies chemical changes.
Radiation:
      -- is 15 times higher than ground-level background at 30,000 ft altitude (I heard this and verified it myself in coach on two occasions).
      -- increases more with even higher altitudes.
      -- is higher around high noon.
      -- is highest over and near the poles of the earth. (See current dose rates)
      -- is higher a number of days after some types of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) from our Sun.
A metal-shell plane shields some radiation more than carbon fiber does.
The 787 shell is carbon fiber, a light, wonderful, brand-new way to go.
Many flight paths traverse over or near the pole (optimal efficiency for more reasons than merely shortest distance).
While the official "service ceiling" for the 787 is a bit over 43,000 ft, if I'm the pilot I can see myself wanting to know how this new dream-of-a-flying-machine handles above that (I'm told by a friend at Boeing that the carrier is asked to report such events back to Boeing for review, that means the reporting is not automatic).

Note: The following may be proven incorrect, yet, this is how science works, consider an unknown, form a hypothesis, then gather further information to verify or discount it.

Hypothesis
For the 787 battery problems, the following series of events may have happened:
1. A significant Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) had occurred a few days before.
2. Flight paths were either over or near the pole or on a path that subjected the flight to higher-than-normal radiation levels.
3. The pilots flew higher than book for some time (maybe, or not necessary).
4. The elevated radiation increased individual cell voltages beyond spec for awhile.
5. Insulation and/or separator sheets **inside** cells began to break down slightly. Perhaps exacerbated by some vapor generated.
6. Current flowed internally and this initiated carbonization, a chemical process (and carbon is an electrical conductor).
7. Unintended discharge increased, internally.
8. At a certain point, the overall voltage had diminished enough that external charging increased (in at least one case that was at an airport, in another, in-flight).
9. In the charging process, given time, the cascading effect produced the breakdown/smoke, slowly more and more severe.
10. Eventually, even with charging off, the internal discharge continued to increase on its own.
 Notice there can be quite the delay in time between the root cause (increased voltage with radiation) and observable result (smoke, melting etc).

To verify, a first step might be to obtain the flight data for affected planes the previous 10 hours or so before first noticing the problem and correlate to atmospheric Total Electron Content (TEC, see animation, some info) which might be to some degree directly proportional to radiation.
Or to test, fly over the pole yet only at the particular time after a CME when the activity is highest.
It will have to be you who pushes for this because I don't have time for the inevitable instantaneous automatic negations (when their only logical response should be 'Huh? Huh. Ok we'll get back to you' while they go gather information), I have better things to do. Good luck. Git 'er done.


Summary
The unknown causes fear so the cause of this problem ought to be tracked down.
There is enough science behind radiation effects on Li-Ion batteries and the presence of radiation at high altitudes that it would make sense to check this out. Run tests.

Your thoughts...
You're invited to comment, remember, this is theory so no need to be too reactive, be good, thank you.


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Credit HowStuffWorks.com